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Mini Poll: Margin of Error


A poll is a survey of what people think or believe about a topic or question. At the very least, pollsters attempt to measure what people are thinking at the time of the survey. At the more ambitious end of their efforts, pollsters try to predict how people will behave - purchase, view, or vote - at some time in the future.

It is pretty clear to most people, including pollsters, that polls can sometimes be wrong. Nobody drank New Coke. Dewey did not defeat Truman. Edsels went unpurchased. Barrett did not stay close to Walker. But, polls can also be useful in measuring and predicting consumer behavior and in providing valuable information about voters' opinion on candidates and about which issues are pushing the electorate.

This year's battery of political polls have already attracted sharp criticisms, fierce defenses, and a great deal of attention. Skeptics who complain about polls' accuracy mention the increased number of cell-phone-only respondents; the practice of early voting; and the so-called Bradley Effect. Yet, polls, including political surveys, have an excellent record of being correct.

This week's Mini-Poll surveys your opinion about polls, particularly political ones.



Have you ever gotten a telephone call at home from a pollster or survey researcher?


Yes
No




Have you ever agreed to be polled?


Yes
No
I have never received such a call




Was the most recent phone poll you received about a political candidate or issue, or for a consumer product/commercial service?


Political candidate/issue
Product/service
I have never been polled by phone




Have you answered a poll recently about your views on Mayor Slay’s plan to reform the St. Louis Fireman’s Retirement Fund?


Yes
No




What is the longest you have ever remained on the phone answering a poll or survey?


A few minutes at most
About ten minutes
About twenty minutes
About a half hour, or longer
I have never participated in a telephone survey




Which of the following ways of contact is most likely to convince you to participate in a survey?


Automated telephone call
Live telephone call
Door-to-door
In-person solicitation in a public place
Internet
Mail-in




Do you think most people generally tell the truth to political pollsters?


Yes
No




How about you? Would you most likely tell the truth to a political pollster?


Yes, to the best of my ability
Yes, more or less
Yes, to the substantive questions but I might fudge on some of the personal questions like my income or age
No




Many political polls now show Barack Obama and Jay Nixon winning their respective elections for US President and Missouri Governor. How much faith do you have these polls are accurate right now?


The polls are right about both of them
The polls are right about at least one of them
The polls are wrong about both of them




How often do you check the source and methodology of the different polls you read or hear about?


All the time
Sometimes
Never




Which of the following sources of political polls do you think are generally the most likely to be the most accurate?


Polls conducted by the mainstream news media
Polls conducted by the candidates/campaigns themselves
Polls conducted by universities
Polls conducted by third-party groups interested in various campaign issues




Which of the following reasons would give you the biggest reason to doubt the accuracy of this year's political polls?


A lot of people with cell phones are not being polled
A lot of newly registered people are not being polled
A lot of people lie to pollsters when race and gender are issues
I have no real reason to doubt political polls this year




How often do you forward the weekly MayorSlay.com poll to your friends (or enemies)?


Always
Sometimes
Occasionally
Never
I haven't thought of it before, but I might do so in the future




Have you seen any TV ads about reforms being considered for the St. Louis Fireman Retirement Fund?


Yes, ads by the firefighters union
Yes, ads by Mayor Slay
Yes, ads by both the firefighters union and by Mayor Slay
No






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